Look, I get it.  I know this is going nowhere.  Trying to convince Mike Brown to trade Carson Palmer is like trying to convince Charlie Sheen that he’s not really “winning,” whatever that means.  Don’t ask me why I’m doing my pointless fight.  I sat down to write a short, one-page letter, and it ended up being over a thousand words long.  Should I be certified insane?  Yes, probably.  But I can’t help myself when I see logical fallacies in other people’s arguments.  I. Must. Prove. Them. Wrong.  Even if it’s like trying to teach a rock how to smile.  Anwyay, here’s the last letter that I’m responding to here: Mike Brown’s Letter.

April 12, 2011

Dear Mr. Brown:

Thank you again for your response.  It is obvious that we will have to agree to disagree on this matter, and that you won’t change your mind on this matter.  Nevertheless, I keep writing to you because I am a diehard fan of the Bengals, and I feel strongly about this matter.

I would like to continue being a fan of the Bengals, but sometimes I feel like Bengals fans are lemmings and you are the Pied Piper.  I hope I am completely wrong about this.  I hope you are right about Palmer coming back and leading the Bengals to many more wins.

In your letter, you say that the Bengals have a “50% chance at a good veteran quarterback.”  I obviously would disagree with that overtly sanguine prediction, but let’s say there is a 50/50 chance of Carson coming back for argument’s sake.  If Palmer does actually come back, here are two possibilities happening (there are a myriad situations happening, but I can’t cover everything):

1)  Palmer decides he wants to play for the Bengals for the rest of his life, and he rediscovers the golden touch that he had back in ’05 and ’06.

2)  Similar to Boomer Esiaison, Palmer comes back conditionally for one more year if he is traded in 2012.  The Bengals draft his replacement, who sits and learns under Carson in 2011.

Without being too hyperbolic, I give the first scenario a 1,000 to 1 shot, if not impossible.  Anyone can have a change of heart, but with Carson demanding a trade and then playing for the Bengals for more than two years that are left on his contract — I just don’t see that happening at all.

The second scenario would be the most likely situation if Carson comes, with a very remote chance of Carson staying both years left on his contract.

So if I’m a betting man, and I have a 50/50 shot at winning something, I take a look at my risks and rewards for my bet.  If Carson decides to come back, you get to rent a veteran quarterback for a year while a rookie sits and develops behind him.  Admittedly, this is the most ideal situation for the Bengals that I see possible for 2011.  If this happens, that’s great for the Bengals and the fans.  Cincinnatians are forgiving people and we’ll welcome Carson back with open arms.

But the thing is, it’s just one year.  That’s it.   You have a 50/50 shot of having just one year of Carson Palmer at the helm.

If you decide to mitigate your losses in this situation and trade Carson, however, you could get the 2nd or 3rd round draft pick for him.  In your letter, you state that “[b]ased on last year’s draft, that translates into a back-up cornerback or back-up receiver.”  This seems to be an overly negative assessment of the value of 2nd and 3rd round picks.  The Bengals themselves have drafted many successful players in the second round or later.  Look at Chad Ochocinco, Rey Maualuga, Chris Henry, Michael Johnson, etc.  I’m surprised I have to mention this at all.  And this year’s draft, the Bengals may possibly draft a quarterback in second round.  You may not draft it with the same pick that you may get for the trade, but, nevertheless, I feel you are unnecessarily devaluing second and third round picks.

And even if the Bengals get “just” a back-up cornerback/receiver, this is still better than receiving nothing at all for a former first-round draft pick.   So if I’m taking this bet with 50/50 odds, and I have a choice between having just one year of Carson vs. “just” a back-up corner/receiver (which I don’t think you’ll necessarily get in the second round), I’d rather go with the pick that I know will give me at least a few years rather than a veteran QB that’ll give me just one.  Even if it’s a great year, which it probably would be since he would be supremely motivated to play well, he would almost certainly be gone.

So then you would still have the same quarterback in 2012 if you don’t trade Carson as you would for the 2011 season if you did trade Carson.  In other words, even if you do win at this contract game, you wouldn’t win for very long, and the circumstances of winning is not significantly better than if you just go ahead and trade him for a pick.

Let me put it in another way (this obviously presupposes a new CBA agreement).

Choice 1: Don’t trade Carson.

-        Positives: He could come back for one year, possibly have a good year, and mentor your new rookie QB. Carson leaves, get picks, and a rookie starts in 2012.

-        Negatives: He does not come back, and the Bengals receive no compensation whatsoever for it.  Bengal fans morale abates even more.

Choice 2: Trade Carson

-        Positives: Ends the current stalemate, and the team gets at least one compensatory pick.  The rookie QB gets more experience as a starter than he would just watching Carson (this is a debatable move, but Sam Bradford did okay last year).  He is the starter for 2011 and 2012.

-        Negatives: The pick for Carson could be just a 3rd round pick, and it could be a bust.

The positives for not trading Carson slightly outweighs the positives for choice two, just because of the mentoring part, but the end result for trading/not trading Carson is eerily similar: a new QB in 2012.  The negative for trading Carson, however, is not nearly as great as the one for choice one.  I mean, draft busts can hurt a team, but I can understand that that happens in the draft sometimes.  I can accept that.  But it’s hard for me to countenance the stance that you have taken, taking the risky proposition here rather than the safe one.

In most circumstances in life, you want to take the known rather than the unknown.  Here, you know you can get at least one draft pick for Carson.  What you don’t know is if Carson will be back.  High probability, strong possibility, or not.

In your letter you wrote, “Opinions vary as what to do.”  I can tell you for almost a certain fact that this is a false statement.  I would like to see if you could name one person outside of your family circle who agrees with your stance on Carson.  I have yet to hear a single NFL person who believes that you should not trade Carson Palmer.  If you polled every single GM, every NFL owner, I would highly doubt they would take your stance if they faced this exact situation.  And the opinion of the second most important person in this situation — Marvin Lewis — I would doubt it seriously if he supports taking this gamble on trading Carson Palmer.  This is not to say that he wouldn’t want Carson back, but I would bet you that if you asked his opinion on this matter, Marvin would tell you to trade Carson once the new CBA is reached, which will hopefully (but doubtfully) be reached before the draft.

As I said before, I hope I am very wrong about this situation.  If you are right, I will be the first person to congratulate you.  Heck, I might even write you another letter, one of sincere apology.

Thanks again for your time.  Good luck with the upcoming draft.  I think Andy Dalton from TCU would be a good choice for QB in the second round.  Just another thought.

Sincerely,

David R. Jacob